Blog Written By Brandon Evans of Soccer Post Huntingdon Valley
Only eight spots remain for the 2026 World Cup here in the USA, Canada, and Mexico, but which teams will qualify? For the first time, the World Cup has 48 total teams and a whole new format. At this point, 42 teams have secured qualification, but we’ll look at the six who can still make it from the Second Round of UEFA Qualifying and the FIFA Inter-Confederation Playoffs.
Second Round of UEFA Qualification
16 teams from Europe will qualify for this year’s tournament. In the first round of UEFA Qualification, which was a group format, each group winner qualified directly. Now, the 12 runners-up, as well as four teams ranked high enough in the 2024/25 Nations League, will compete to fill the last four UEFA berths. To decide this, the 16 remaining nations are separated into four paths, each with four teams that operate like mini-tournaments. Two nations will face off in a semifinal, with the winners meeting in the final to determine who advances to the World Cup.
UEFA Path A – Italy vs Northern Ireland and Wales vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Path A will be one of the most anticipated, given that it features Italy, the four-time champion, who could miss out on their third World Cup in a row after failures at a similar stage in 2018 and 2022. Two heavy losses to Norway in the first round condemned Italy to the playoffs. Now, they have a crucial semifinal to save face.
Their opponent, Northern Ireland, had a below-average performance in their group but reached this stage as the 4th-highest-ranked Nations League group winner, finishing outside the top two of their World Cup qualifying group. Many will back Italy in this matchup simply because of their history and the talent gap between them and Northern Ireland, but soccer is a curious sport at times.
Northern Ireland actually played an important role in Italy’s last failed World Cup campaign four years ago. Their shock 0-0 draw on the final day sent Italy to the playoff, where they lost to North Macedonia. Could history repeat itself?
Their opponent in the final will be the winner of Wales and Bosnia & Herzegovina, two evenly matched teams. Both nations performed well in the first round, coming very close to topping the group but just missing out. Wales has more recent tournament experience, but Bosnia & Herzegovina is certainly no pushover, after their draw against Austria and victory over Romania.
UEFA Path B – Ukraine vs Sweden and Poland vs Albania
Path B might be the most evenly matched quartet at this stage, with each team having a realistic chance of advancing. The first matchup is between Ukraine and Sweden, and while the Swedes have the stronger squad on paper, the results have not backed it up. Sweden actually finished bottom of their group with Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak firing blanks.
Sweden only advanced to the playoffs as the 2nd-highest-ranked Nations League group winner, finishing outside the top two in their World Cup qualifying group. If Sweden gets its act together, it would be a truly scary team, but Ukraine has a very young and exciting squad that could shock the Swedes if they get caught sleeping again.
The winner will face either Poland or Albania, another close tie. For the past decade, Poland has been a consistently solid team, making most of the World Cups and Euros in that timeframe. While they do have experience, their squad is definitely aging, as evidenced by their star striker, Robert Lewandowski, who is now 37.
On the other side, Albania is a team on the rise after their respectable showing at Euro 2024. Most would favor the Poles due to their tournament experience, but Albania proved they can put up a good fight against the best of the best.
UEFA Path C – Türkiye vs Romania and Slovakia vs Kosovo
Both matches here in Path C seem relatively straightforward, with one team heavily favored to win. The first matchup is between Türkiye and Romania. Türkiye is quite a volatile team, but on their day, they can be one of the best in the world.
Led by two exciting youth prospects, Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız, Türkiye already boasts a talented squad. They only finished behind the reigning European champions, Spain. Romania, on the other hand, is a durable team, but definitely not as flashy. Romania did pull off some notable results at the last Euros, so an upset here is definitely not out of the question.
In the other semifinal, Slovakia faces Kosovo, two teams with very different runs of form. Having gained independence only in 2008, Kosovo has never qualified for a major tournament, so a debut at the World Cup would be truly remarkable. But despite their lack of experience, they actually do have a formidable squad, one that is relatively equal in quality to their opponents, Slovakia.
What separates these teams is their recent form. Kosovo closed out their group with unexpected yet extraordinary wins against Sweden and Slovenia, as well as a draw with Switzerland. Meanwhile, Slovakia’s latest match was a harrowing 6-0 loss to Germany. Kosovo will look to maintain its momentum, while Slovakia needs an overhaul to qualify for its first World Cup since 2010.
UEFA Path D – Denmark vs North Macedonia and Czechia vs. the Republic of Ireland
The last path features some great underdog stories. First up, we have Denmark facing off against North Macedonia, two teams who dazzled at the turn of the decade and are trying to repeat that success in 2026. Denmark lit up the European stage at Euro 2020, reaching the semifinals, and while the 2022 World Cup brought them back down to Earth, they had a reasonable performance at Euro 2024, showing that this team is still a reputable opponent.
Their most recent results show this as well, as they just missed out on top spot following a back-and-forth shootout with Scotland, who themselves clinched automatic qualification with a win there. North Macedonia, on the other hand, qualified for its first-ever tournament at Euro 2020 and then famously knocked Italy out of World Cup qualification in 2022; however, the years since have not been the kind to them. For a team that’s always punching above its weight, recent form does not look too promising. Could lightning strike twice?
Czechia faces the Republic of Ireland in the second semifinal. The Irish pulled off one of the most memorable escape plans in recent years after forward Troy Parrott scored five goals across two games to lead two dramatic wins over Portugal and Hungary, leapfrogging the heavily favored Hungarians and sneaking into the playoffs. Can this fairytale run continue and bring Ireland to their first major tournament since Euro 2016? It will be no easy task, as Czechia is a very tough-nosed team, led by veteran star striker Patrik Schick.
Inter-Confederation Playoffs
Outside of Europe, two spots remain and will go to the winners of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Play-Off Tournament, featuring six nations from five continents. In a similar mini-tournament-like format, the six teams are divided into two different pathways. Based on FIFA rankings, the higher-ranked team earns an automatic berth in the final, while the others face off in a semifinal before meeting the higher seed.
Pathway 1 – New Caledonia, Jamaica, and the Democratic Republic of Congo
In the first pathway, the opening semifinal will be between New Caledonia (Oceania) and Jamaica (North America). New Caledonia has never qualified for a World Cup before, and if they do qualify for the 2026 World Cup, it will be one of the greatest stories in soccer history, given that most of their squad are amateur players. They earned this spot in this playoff, finishing runners-up to New Zealand in OFC Qualifying.
Their opponents will be Jamaica, a representative of North America and the Caribbean, with players from the English Premier League and MLS. Jamaica should be among CONCACAF’s elite, but a series of poor coaching hires, locker-room infighting, and general mismanagement of the team have stunted its development.
Awaiting the winner is the DR Congo, representing Central Africa. The Congolese enter this playoff as possibly the best of the six teams here. Their path to this point was truly extraordinary, as they defeated and outplayed African powerhouses Cameroon and Nigeria in the CAF Playoff, denying both a World Cup spot.
Only two months later, they had a very strong showing at AFCON 2025, only narrowly losing to Algeria in the Round of 16. Whether it be New Caledonia or Jamaica facing DR Congo, they will need to deliver a near-perfect performance to come out on top.
Pathway 2 – Bolivia, Suriname, and Iraq
While the other pathway may seem more straightforward, Pathway 2 is anything but. The semifinal will be an all-American showdown between Bolivia and Suriname, who, despite being from the same continent, represent two different FIFA Confederations for cultural reasons. Bolivia is a team that had success many decades ago and even featured at the 1994 World Cup in the United States.
In recent times, however, they’ve struggled to compete in CONMEBOL, with their last appearance in the Copa América knockout round coming in 2015. Using the brutal altitude of their home stadium, Estadio Municipal de El Alto in La Paz, to their advantage, Bolivia picked up two decisive wins in CONMEBOL Qualifying against Chile and Brazil to leapfrog Venezuela and reach this stage. While their home form is impressive, one cannot overlook their poor away form.
Jamaica’s Caribbean neighbor, Suriname, a rising team in international soccer, will be the one standing in Bolivia’s way. Due to the nation’s historic ties to the Netherlands, Suriname is home to many Dutch-based players, forming a deceptively talented squad, especially compared to other CONCACAF sides. Their biggest obstacle is getting all the cogs to spin in unison, as recent results have been very up-and-down.
Awaiting the winner of Bolivia vs Suriname in the final is Iraq, representing the Middle East and Asia as a whole. Given the sheer number of nations in Asia, AFC World Cup Qualifying is separated into five grueling rounds, with Iraq having to make it through four of those before arriving here at the Inter-Confederation Playoffs. In the fifth and final round, Iraq proved its worth with a tough 3-2 aggregate win over the UAE, which required a winning goal in the 90+17th minute to advance.
In recent history, Iraq has been a force in Asian and Arab football, consistently progressing deep into the Asian Cup, with their crowning achievement being their title-winning campaign at the 2007 edition. Even at the most recent Arab Cup in December, Iraq had a very good showing, losing in the Quarterfinals to Jordan, which qualified for the 2026 World Cup.
However, if Iraq wants to break down the defenses of either Bolivia or Suriname, they will need their star forwards, Aymen Hussein and Mohanad Ali, to show up in what could be the most important match in Iraqi football history.
Who do you think will make it to the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Make sure to root for your nation and don’t miss a second of the action this week, with games kicking off on March 26!
